Daily Techno-Babble

Unless you have been hiding under a rock then you have very likely read about the ongoing One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) project which aims to design, produce and distribute a laptop with a target price around $100 to millions of needy children around the world. The basic idea is that these devices would be purchased and used in poor rural areas where no existing computing technology exists. So why does such a noble endeavor strike fear into the heart of such a mammoth company as Microsoft? It’s really simple, these groundbreaking new computing devices run Linux not Windows. At first glance this seems like not such a huge deal but if you look at the target distribution numbers for the OLPC then you begin to understand the fear coming from Microsoft about the long term consequences of this project. Imagine a world where millions of children have their first experience with a computer…running Linux. This is really Microsoft’s worst nightmare and ample justification for their recent attempts at spreading the FUD about patent violations and other similar anti-linux actions.

Technorati Tags: linux, microsoft, ubuntu, vista

Of course for those Linux supporters the concept of the OLPC is not just a great idea but the next logical step after the recent success Linux has made in both the server and desktop markets. In particular the very noteworthy announcements from both Dell and Toshiba of Ubuntu support have really turned everyone’s attention to Linux as a serious alternative to Windows. So as the OLPC project begins to roll out the first copies of their ultra-cheap laptop (running Linux) three powerful reasons to be worried loom large in Redmond….

1. Millions of children running Linux.
All silliness aside, the prospect of an entire generation being introduced to computing in a world where Windows simply does not exist is downright horrifying to Microsoft executives. Lack of understanding as to the level of dedication on the part of the OLPC project has lead to 11th hour actions with Intel to rush a competitor to market running Windows. Unfortunately as proposed this Microsoft-Intel version of the ultra-low-cost laptop seems to be not only pricing out significantly higher than the projected $100 (or even the more realistic number of $175) for the OLPC laptop but is also facing stiff resistance due to the very perception that running Windows raises the long term costs beyond what developing nations can support. The bottom line is that the huge potential market penetration of millions of Linux-based laptops can turn the tide against Windows in not just the education markets but also in the broader corporate world as these children grow into adulthood.

2. Windows developers are taking notice.
Now that the OLPC project is really starting to make progress many developers are starting to take notice. Generally there is a strong feeling “on the ground” that Linux is really starting to become not just a server option but an option on mobile, desktop, and the ultra-portable laptop markets. The OLPC project brings the numbers to the table but the efforts on polishing the development tools over the last few years have finally begun to pay off. With other similar operating systems such as Mac OSX beginning to pull market share from Microsoft alongside Linux many forward thinking development teams are starting to see the writing on the wall; start working with Linux now, or suffer later when the broader markets make the jump. Bottom line is that Microsoft will have a hard time wooing developers back onto Windows once they realize that Linux is where the action is at.

3. OLPC is breaking the cost rules.
As many have noticed with the recent Dell Ubuntu Linux offerings, the so-called “Microsoft Tax” seems to be about $50 per system for machines shipped in large quantities. To folks in the developed world this does not sound like an unreasonable amount of money, especially when a single copy sells for $199 (or more). In developing nations even $50 is simply far too much for these users to consider paying in addition to the hardware costs. This situation has generated a significant increase in both piracy and governmental pressures in these parts of the world prompting Microsoft into making some (reluctant) price concessions. That said, this is not news Microsoft shareholders want to hear. With Windows’s market penetration starting to flatten out thanks to Vista’s poor reception things are defiantly not looking good for Microsoft in the long run. Bottom line is that the OLPC project is targeting one of the last remaining growth markets for Microsoft’s products with a price point that is virtually impossible for Microsoft to compete with.